False Positive Rate -$1,073,000

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : False Positive Rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.08
Dimensions : ["merchant_category_code", "merchant_id", "transaction_amount_bucket", "txn_time_of_day", "device_type", "account_tenure_bucket", "risk_tier", "customer_region", "device_fingerprint_stability", "num_pii_changes_last_30d_bucket", "txn_count_last_24h_bucket", "avg_txn_amt_last_7d_bucket", "kyc_completion_level", "sim_swap_flag"]
Frequency : ["daily", "weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort mcc=6011, device_os=Android, state_addr=TX

Impact Size: $-845k

False Positive Rate Analysis - MCC 6011 (Android, TX) โ€“ Last 30 Days

False Positive Rate Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

False positive rate for MCC 6011 (ATM withdrawals) via Android devices in Texas is 12% vs. portfolio average of 3% over the last 30 days. This suggests a segment where rules or model thresholds may be overly aggressive, potentially frustrating legitimate customers.

Drivers:

  • High geo/device mismatch sensitivity for Android devices.
  • Possible overfitting in fraud model to older patterns of ATM fraud in TX.
  • Limited behavioral verification before decline (few two-step challenges used).
๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

Mitigation:

  • Adjust geo/device mismatch threshold for Android devices in major TX metros from current aggressive setting.
  • Implement tenure-based exceptions for customers with >6 months clean payment history.
  • Add step-up authentication instead of hard declines for this segment.
๐Ÿ” Explain (Proposed Rule Changes)

Impact Analysis:

This FP hotspot affects approximately 650,000 ATM transactions annually in Texas from Android users. Current decline rate of 12% means ~78,000 legitimate transactions are being blocked.

Based on customer behavior analysis, ~60% of declined customers (46,800) abandon the transaction entirely, while 40% retry successfully through step-up authentication or alternative payment methods.

Each abandoned ATM transaction represents lost interchange revenue of approximately $1.50 per transaction. The total annual revenue impact from this FP segment is estimated at $285,000 in lost interchange fees.

Additionally, each false positive generates customer service contact costs averaging $12 per incident, adding ~$560,000 in annual operational costs.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Total Annual Impact
  • Lost Interchange Revenue: $285,000
  • Customer Service Costs: $560,000
  • Total Quantified Impact: $845,000

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort mcc=5812, txn_amount<$20, tenure>2years

Impact Size: $-228k

False Positive Rate Analysis - MCC 5812 (<$20, Tenure>2yrs) โ€“ Last Quarter

False Positive Rate Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

Transactions <$20 at MCC 5812 (eating places) from customers with >2 years tenure have a 6% FP rate vs. portfolio average of 2% over the last quarter. These low-ticket, low-risk transactions are being flagged due to a generic velocity rule.

Drivers:

  • Current LOW_VALUE_MCC_VELOCITY rule triggers after 3 transactions in 1 h regardless of customer tenure or dispute history.
  • Long-tenured, dispute-free customers exceed this threshold when using QSR or delivery apps.
  • No tenure or merchant-risk adjustment is built into the velocity rule.
๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

Mitigation:

Revise LOW_VALUE_MCC_VELOCITY rule to exclude customers with tenure >2 yrs, 0 disputes in last 12 m, and merchant_risk_score โ‰ค 20.

Impact Analysis (Counterfactual):

  • Baseline: 72K flagged transactions last quarter in segment.
  • Mitigation: FP 6% โ†’ 2% prevents ~2,880 false declines per quarter.
  • Retention impact: $57K/quarter lift (at $20 goodwill per false decline).

This FP hotspot affects approximately 288,000 food transactions annually from long-tenured customers. Current decline rate of 6% means ~17,280 legitimate transactions are being blocked.

Based on customer behavior analysis, ~65% of declined customers (11,232) abandon the transaction entirely, while 35% retry successfully. Each abandoned transaction represents lost interchange revenue of approximately $0.60 per transaction on average for low-value transactions.

Additionally, each false positive generates customer service contact costs averaging $8 per incident, adding ~$138,240 in annual operational costs.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Total Annual Impact
  • Lost Interchange Revenue: $89,760
  • Customer Service Costs: $138,240
  • Total Quantified Impact: $228,000

YAML Rule Change (Rule Revision):

# rules/fraud/low_value_velocity.yaml
+- id: LOW_VALUE_MCC_VELOCITY
description: Flag low-value transactions with excessive velocity
priority: 4
conditions:
- txn_amount:
lt: 20
- mcc_code:
in: [5812, 5814]
- velocity_count_1h:
gt: 3
- unless:
- customer_tenure_months:
gt: 24
- dispute_count_last_12m: 0
- merchant_risk_score:
lte: 20
action: review
notes: >
Revised 2025-08-07 to exclude long-tenured, dispute-free customers at low-risk merchants.

DQ 60 Signal -$860,000

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Standard Deviation : 2
Metric : dq_60
Dimensions : ["source", "state_addr", "fico_bucket", "loan_amt_range", "term_length"]
Frequency : ["weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort source=Walmart, state=TX

Impact Size: $-860k

DQ 60 Signal Analysis source=Walmart, state=TX - Time Series (June-July 7, 2017)

DQ 60 Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

A spike in DQ60 is concentrated in loans from the Walmart channel in Texas. These loans show significantly lower down payment ratios compared to both non-DQ loans in the same segment and the prior month's originations.

Drivers:

  • Reduced down payment thresholds led to lower borrower equity.
  • Possible overrides or policy drift in underwriting for this source-region segment.
๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

Mitigation:

  • Raise minimum down payment requirements Walmart loans in Texas 20%.

Impact Analysis:

Consilience ran a counterfactual analysis over the 2024 Q1 vintage to estimate the impact of stricter down payment thresholds:

  • Estimated reduction in 60+ day delinquencies: 290 accounts
  • Estimated loss reduction: ~$860K
  • Segment: walmart-sourced loans in Texas (Janโ€“Mar 2025)
  • Benchmark: Prior-year cohort with consistent down payment policies
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

Follow Up?

Fraud Model Residuals -$176,000

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : Model Residuals
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["model_name", "merchant_repeat_count_30dprediction_date_bucket", "mcc", "merchant_chain_id", "txn_channel", "payment_method_type", "card_present_flag", "txn_amount_bucket", "customer_tenure_bucket", "risk_tier", "state_addr", "device_os", "device_change_indicator", "geo_device_mismatch_flag", "merchant_risk_score_bucket", "velocity_txn_count_24h_bucket"]
Frequency : ["daily", "weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort mcc=5411, txn_amount_bucket=$40-$120, merchant_repeat_count_30d>=3

Impact Size: $-176k

Fraud Model Residuals โ€“ mcc=5411, txn_amount_bucket=$40-$120, merchant_repeat_count_30d>=3 โ€“ Last 30 Days

Fraud Model Residuals Triage Results

Insight:

For fraud_model_v23, MCC 5411 (Supermarkets) transactions $40โ€“$120 where the cardholder visited the same merchant โ‰ฅ3 times in the past 30 days have mean_residual = +0.22 (n = 18,700) with an actual fraud rate of 0.2%. This is a false-positive hotspot.

We generate candidate features, test them on the dataset, and show they discriminate over-predicted vs well-predicted cases inside the cohort.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

Mitigation:

  • Add merchant_repeat_loyalty โ€” Capture normalized repeat visits by customer tenure and merchant size to identify stable, habitual spenders who are lower risk.
  • Add ticket_amount_stddev โ€” Measure consistency of purchase amounts for a merchant-customer pair to flag irregular, high-variance patterns linked to fraud.
  • Add merchant_time_of_day_mode_delta โ€” Quantify deviation from a customer's typical purchase time at a merchant to detect unusual behavior.

Impact Analysis:

All three proposed features show statistically significant correlations with residuals and moderate effect sizes, indicating they carry meaningful discriminatory power within this cohort. Their relationships are directionally consistent with fraud science intuition (loyalty and stability = lower risk; variability and temporal anomalies = higher risk). They are also stable week-over-week in historical data, making them strong candidates for inclusion in the next fraud model training cycle to reduce false positives in this segment.

About ~400,000 transactions per year fall into this false-positive hotspot (fraud_model_v23, MCC 5411, $40โ€“$120 repeat visits). Based on observed recovery behavior, ~50% of blocked transactions are successfully reinstated by customers, leaving ~50% unrecovered today.

By mitigating this hotspot, we could conservatively recover ~25% of the overall transaction volumeโ€”about 100,000 purchases annually. At an average ticket size of $80, this equates to $8 million in recovered purchase volume.

With our take rate of 2.2%, this translates into ~$176,000 in incremental annual revenue.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Statistical Details)

Verification Status Signal -$127,000

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : approval_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.15
Dimensions : ["employment_type", "doc_status", "state", "income_verification_method"]
Frequency : ["daily", "weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort employment_type=self-employed, doc_status=incomplete, state=FL,CA

Impact Size: $-127k

Verification Status Approval Rate Analysis - Time Series (June-July 16, 2017)

Verification Status Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

Approval rate drop concentrated in self-employed and 1099 contractor applications (62% vs. 85% baseline). Income documentation gaps affected 45% of rejected applications, with manual review queue increasing 240% following regulatory changes.

Drivers:

  • Regulatory compliance overcorrection: new ATR rules triggered excessive manual reviews without adequate staffing.
  • Single point of failure: over-reliance on The Work Number created verification bottleneck during system outage.
  • Inconsistent documentation standards for non-W2 income led to higher rejection rates for creditworthy self-employed borrowers.

Mitigation:

  • Implement backup verification services: add Equifax and Experian employment databases as secondary sources.
  • Create alternative doc pathways: accept 12-month bank statements + 2-year tax returns for self-employed with FICO 700+.
  • Staff verification team appropriately: add 3 FTE to handle 240% queue increase and establish 48-hour SLA.
  • Refine ATR triggers: reduce manual review threshold from DTI 40% to 43% for verified income with strong credit profiles.

Impact Analysis:

Third-party verification failures affected 28% of volume during July 12-16 outage. Manual review queue increased 240% following CFPB ability-to-repay implementation.

  • Estimated annual impact: $127k in lost origination revenue
  • Processing delays: Average application time increased from 2 days to 6 days
  • Customer satisfaction: 15% decline in NPS scores for affected segment

Subprime Default Signal -$94,000

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : default_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.2
Dimensions : ["fico_range", "loan_type", "state", "employment_type", "ltv_bucket"]
Frequency : ["weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort fico_range=580-620, loan_type=auto, state=FL,CA, employment_type=seasonal

Impact Size: $-94k

Subprime Default Signal Analysis - Time Series (June-July 7, 2017)

Subprime Default Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

Default concentration in auto loans with FICO 580-620 across Florida and California markets. Employment verification bypass rate increased from 8% to 23% in Q2 2017 for this segment, with 38% of defaults concentrated in tourism/hospitality sectors.

Drivers:

  • Aggressive growth targets led to relaxed LTV limits and employment verification shortcuts in subprime auto segment.
  • Geographic concentration risk amplified by seasonal employment volatility in tourism-dependent markets.
  • Fed rate normalization signals created borrower payment stress, particularly affecting variable rate products.

Mitigation:

  • Tighten LTV caps to 90% for FICO <620 in FL/CA markets and require full employment verification.
  • Implement seasonal employment buffers: require 3-month cash reserves for tourism/hospitality borrowers.
  • Diversify geographic exposure: cap FL/CA originations at 15% of monthly volume until performance stabilizes.
  • Establish $94k loss reserve and implement early intervention for 30+ DPD in this segment.

Impact Analysis:

Loan-to-value ratios for defaulted loans average 95%+ vs. 87% for performing loans in same vintage. Seasonal employment concentration shows 38% of defaults in tourism/hospitality sectors vs. 12% baseline.

  • Estimated annual loss exposure: $2.5M based on current portfolio composition
  • Geographic risk: FL/CA markets represent 45% of subprime auto originations
  • Employment verification gaps: 23% bypass rate vs. 8% historical average
  • Vintage performance: Q2 2017 cohort showing 15% higher default rates

Delinquent Accounts -$45,000

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.15
Dimensions : ["customer_id"]

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort customer_id=ACME-CORP-12847

Impact Size: $-45k

Delinquent Account Alert - ACME-CORP-12847 (Payment Pattern Analysis)

๐Ÿšจ Delinquent Account Triage: ACME-CORP-12847

๐Ÿ’ก Insight:

ACME-CORP-12847 has become delinquent on their $180,000 software financing facility. Root cause analysis reveals a pattern of declining operational health that preceded the default by 60+ days, indicating missed early warning signals in our underwriting process.

๐Ÿ“Š Drivers:

  • Extended vendor payment cycles from 32 to 58 days average
  • 25% reduction in software seat utilization over 90 days
  • Sharp decline in digital marketing spend (-67% month-over-month)
  • Employee headcount reduction signals via collaboration tool usage
๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Mitigation:

Underwriting Rule System Changes:
  • Vendor Payment Monitoring: Implement automated tracking of payment delays to key SaaS vendors >20% above industry average
  • Software Utilization Thresholds: Require minimum 70% seat utilization; flag accounts dropping below 65%
  • Employee Activity Monitoring: Track collaboration tool usage as proxy for headcount changes; alert on >15% reduction
  • Digital Marketing Spend Floor: Set minimum marketing investment requirements for growth-stage borrowers
New Predictive Model Features:
  • vendor_payment_velocity_trend: Rolling 90-day average of payment delay changes to software vendors
  • software_utilization_decline_rate: Rate of decrease in licensed software seat usage
  • employee_activity_index: Composite score of collaboration tool engagement metrics
  • operational_health_score: Combined metric integrating payment patterns, utilization, and workforce signals
  • cash_flow_stress_indicator: Binary flag when 2+ stress signals present simultaneously

๐Ÿ’ธ Impact Analysis:

Analysis of similar patterns across our B2B portfolio shows implementing these signals could prevent 15-20% of future delinquencies:

MetricCurrent CasePortfolio Impact
Outstanding Balance$180,000-
Expected Loss Rate25%18% average
Direct Loss$45,000-
Early Detection Window60+ days45-90 days typical
Preventable Cases/Year-12-16 accounts
Annual Loss Avoidance-$750,000 - $980,000
๐Ÿ” Explain (Portfolio Analysis)

๐Ÿ”„ Follow Up?

ERP Payments Delay Alert -$29,700

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : avg_payment_delay_days
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["invoice_terms", "counterparty_firmographics"]

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort sector=Custom Electronics, erp=SAP, utilization>85%

Impact Size: $-15k

ERP Payments Delay Alert - LuxMaterials LLC (Last 30 Days)

๐Ÿšจ Triage Analysis: LuxMaterials LLC Payment Delay Spike

๐Ÿ’ก Insights

LuxMaterials LLC has exhibited a 37% increase in payment settlement time from their historical baseline of 31 days to 42.6 days over the past 30 days. This coincides with accelerated draw activity and heightened credit line utilization (89%).

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Current utilization rate: 89%
  • โฐ Payment delay increase: 31 โ†’ 42.6 days
  • ๐Ÿ“Š Percentage increase: 37%
  • ๐Ÿ”ด Risk threshold exceeded: >35% delay increase

This pattern indicates potential cash flow stress requiring immediate attention and risk mitigation.

๐Ÿ“‰ Drivers

Consilience detected that LuxMaterials Inc. has experienced a material increase in invoice settlement delays, based on ERP sync with SAP. The payment cycle has slowed, with average days to payment increasing from 29 to 42 days in the last 60 days. This is paired with rising draw velocityโ€”indicating cash strain.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Mitigation

  • ๐Ÿšซ Freeze additional draws until payment cycle normalizes
  • ๐Ÿ“ž Initiate enhanced monitoring: weekly check-ins
  • ๐Ÿ“‹ Request updated financial statements and cash flow projections
  • ๐ŸŽฏ Set utilization cap at 90% to limit further exposure
  • โš ๏ธ Flag for loan committee review if delays exceed 45 days

๐Ÿ’ธ Impact Analysis

Current exposure assessment shows material risk concentration requiring immediate attention:

MetricValue
Current Outstanding Balance$445,000
Credit Line Limit$500,000
Excess Exposure Identified$55,000
Estimated ROA at Risk (90d)27.0%
Potential Loss Avoided$14,850
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Risk insight found in cohort sector=Custom Electronics, erp=SAP, utilization>85%

Impact Size: $-15k

ERP Payments Delay Alert - LuxMaterials LLC (Last 30 Days)

๐Ÿšจ Triage Analysis: LuxMaterials LLC Payment Delay Spike

๐Ÿ’ก Insights

LuxMaterials LLC has exhibited a 37% increase in payment settlement time from their historical baseline of 31 days to 42.6 days over the past 30 days. This coincides with accelerated draw activity and heightened credit line utilization (89%).

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Current utilization rate: 89%
  • โฐ Payment delay increase: 31 โ†’ 42.6 days
  • ๐Ÿ“Š Percentage increase: 37%
  • ๐Ÿ”ด Risk threshold exceeded: >35% delay increase

This pattern indicates potential cash flow stress requiring immediate attention and risk mitigation.

๐Ÿ“‰ Drivers

Consilience detected that LuxMaterials Inc. has experienced a material increase in invoice settlement delays, based on ERP sync with SAP. The payment cycle has slowed, with average days to payment increasing from 29 to 42 days in the last 60 days. This is paired with rising draw velocityโ€”indicating cash strain.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Mitigation

  • ๐Ÿšซ Freeze additional draws until payment cycle normalizes
  • ๐Ÿ“ž Initiate enhanced monitoring: weekly check-ins
  • ๐Ÿ“‹ Request updated financial statements and cash flow projections
  • ๐ŸŽฏ Set utilization cap at 90% to limit further exposure
  • โš ๏ธ Flag for loan committee review if delays exceed 45 days

๐Ÿ’ธ Impact Analysis

Current exposure assessment shows material risk concentration requiring immediate attention:

MetricValue
Current Outstanding Balance$445,000
Credit Line Limit$500,000
Excess Exposure Identified$55,000
Estimated ROA at Risk (90d)27.0%
Potential Loss Avoided$14,850
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

Takeup Deviation Signal +$315,000

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : takeup
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["source", "product_type", "loan_amt_range", "term_length"]
Frequency : ["weekly", "monthly", "quarterly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Opportunity insight found in cohort source=Shopify, product_type=GrowthFlex

Impact Size: $315k

GrowthFlex Takeup Analysis - Weekly Takeup Rates

Weekly Takeup Rate Comparison

GrowthFlex Triage Analysis Results

Insight:

A cohort of Shopify merchants enrolled in the GrowthFlex Long-Term Capital Program (Program ID: LTP-1024)โ€”offering 12, 24, and 36-month financingโ€”showed a 41% take-up rate and a 4.6% realized ROA, based on backbook_valuations.

This performance materially outpaces portfolio benchmarks:

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Portfolio-wide take-up rate: 34%
  • ๐Ÿ’ธ Portfolio-wide realized ROA: 2.7%

Consilience flagged this for triage after detecting outlier performance in take-up and ROA for long-duration offers. A second cohort of merchantsโ€”unoffered but similar in industry, credit signals, and loan sizingโ€”was surfaced as a high-confidence expansion opportunity.

Drivers:

  • Long-term GrowthFlex loans (12/24/36 months) are driving high engagement and performance.
  • The borrowers on the program are not uniquely low-risk but share common traits in industry, FICO, and loan size.
  • A matching cohort was found that is not receiving offers but exhibits these same signals.
๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

Mitigation (Opportunity Lever):

  • Roll out GrowthFlex to the 1,840 matching merchants.
  • Use the same offer configuration and term mix (12, 24, 36 months).
  • Monitor realized ROA via backbook_valuations to validate unit economics at scale.

Impact Analysis:

Consilience ran a counterfactual forecast using existing 2025 data to estimate returns from extending GrowthFlex to the untapped cohort.

  • Expected new loans: ~754
  • Average loan size: $22,000
  • Realized ROA: 4.6%
  • Portfolio baseline ROA: 2.7%
  • Incremental profit opportunity: ~$315K
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

Follow Up?

Withdrawn ROA Efficiency +$43,200

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : realized_margin_per_drawn_dollar
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.015
Dimensions : ["borrower_id"]
Filters : {"product_type": "working_capital"}

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Opportunity insight found in cohort borrower=ThermoLine, erp=NetSuite, utilization>80%

Impact Size: $22k

InvoiceFlex Withdrawn ROA Efficiency Signal - ThermoLine Inc. (May-July 2025)

๐Ÿš€ Triage Analysis: ThermoLine Inc. โ€” ROA Efficiency Spike

๐Ÿ’ก Insight

ThermoLine Inc. demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency, achieving a 5.1% realized ROA on drawn capitalโ€”significantly outperforming benchmarks:

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Current utilization rate: 86%
  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Realized ROA: 5.1%
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Portfolio-wide utilization: 53%
  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Portfolio-wide return on drawn capital: 2.7%

Consilience flagged ThermoLine after detecting outlier behavior in draw velocity and margin efficiency. This is a high-efficiency borrower with consistent invoice turn and ERP integrationโ€”signaling a low-friction opportunity to expand capital deployment.

๐Ÿ” Drivers

The spike in realized margin per drawn dollar triggered a Consilience signal, prompting a root cause investigation. ThermoLine Inc.'s working capital behavior was analyzed across draw timing, repayment speed, and ERP-linked invoice performance.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

๐ŸŽฏ Mitigation

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Increase ThermoLine's credit line by $150K โ†’ Utilization currently sits at 86% of the existing limit.
  • ๐Ÿ” Enable auto-limit review for ERP-connected borrowers with >4% realized margin.
  • ๐Ÿท๏ธ Tag profile for lookalike expansion:
    • Mid-prime FICO (640โ€“680)
    • Invoice turn < 25 days
    • ERP-integrated (NetSuite, Oracle, SAP)

๐Ÿ’ฐ Impact Analysis

  • Incremental Draw Capacity: +$100K
  • Recycling Rate: 6x in 90 days (15-day draw duration)
  • ROA Uplift: 5.1% realized vs 1.5% portfolio baseline
  • Projected Incremental Profit: ~$21,600
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

โœ… Signal run

๐Ÿ“ˆ 1 Opportunity insight found in cohort borrower=ThermoLine, erp=NetSuite, utilization>80%

Impact Size: $22k

InvoiceFlex Withdrawn ROA Efficiency Signal - ThermoLine Inc. (May-July 2025)

๐Ÿš€ Triage Analysis: ThermoLine Inc. โ€” ROA Efficiency Spike

๐Ÿ’ก Insight

ThermoLine Inc. demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency, achieving a 5.1% realized ROA on drawn capitalโ€”significantly outperforming benchmarks:

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Current utilization rate: 86%
  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Realized ROA: 5.1%
  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Portfolio-wide utilization: 53%
  • ๐Ÿ’ฐ Portfolio-wide return on drawn capital: 2.7%

Consilience flagged ThermoLine after detecting outlier behavior in draw velocity and margin efficiency. This is a high-efficiency borrower with consistent invoice turn and ERP integrationโ€”signaling a low-friction opportunity to expand capital deployment.

๐Ÿ” Drivers

The spike in realized margin per drawn dollar triggered a Consilience signal, prompting a root cause investigation. ThermoLine Inc.'s working capital behavior was analyzed across draw timing, repayment speed, and ERP-linked invoice performance.

๐Ÿ” Explain (Root Cause Analysis)

๐ŸŽฏ Mitigation

  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Increase ThermoLine's credit line by $150K โ†’ Utilization currently sits at 86% of the existing limit.
  • ๐Ÿ” Enable auto-limit review for ERP-connected borrowers with >4% realized margin.
  • ๐Ÿท๏ธ Tag profile for lookalike expansion:
    • Mid-prime FICO (640โ€“680)
    • Invoice turn < 25 days
    • ERP-integrated (NetSuite, Oracle, SAP)

๐Ÿ’ฐ Impact Analysis

  • Incremental Draw Capacity: +$100K
  • Recycling Rate: 6x in 90 days (15-day draw duration)
  • ROA Uplift: 5.1% realized vs 1.5% portfolio baseline
  • Projected Incremental Profit: ~$21,600
๐Ÿ” Explain (Impact Analysis)

Custom Chargeoff Bounds

Type
Manually Defined Bound
Definition
Metric : chargeoff
Upper : 0.05
Lower : 0.01
Dimensions : ["origination_period"]
Frequency : ["weekly", "monthly", "quarterly", "yearly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

Customer LTV

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : ltv_value
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["source", "product_type", "payment_method_type", "is_autopay_enabled", "is_repeat_user"]
Frequency : ["monthly", "quarterly", "yearly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

Drawdown Velocity Shift

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : credit_line_utilization_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.1
Dimensions : ["borrower_id", "sector"]

ERP Cash Flow Strain

Type
Manually Defined Bound
Definition
Metric : cash_balance_over_liabilities
Lower : 0.3
Upper : None
Dimensions : ["borrower_id", "sector"]

Early Repayment Spike

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : early_repayment_pct
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["borrower_segment", "sector"]

Funding to Draw Conversion Drop

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : funded_to_approved_ratio
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["month_year", "borrower_tier"]

Industry Peer Default Signal

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : peer_default_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["naics_code", "loan_term"]

Invoice Delinquency Drift

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : days_sales_outstanding
Standard Deviation : 2
Dimensions : ["sector", "invoice_terms", "counterparty_segment"]

Invoice Volume Anomaly

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : invoice_count
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.1
Dimensions : ["month_year", "borrower_id", "counterparty_type"]

Low AOV Approval Rate

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : low_aov_approval_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["source", "product_type", "payment_method_type", "is_autopay_enabled", "is_repeat_user"]
Frequency : ["daily", "weekly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

Payment Method Failure Rate

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : payment_method_failure_rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.7
Dimensions : ["source", "product_type", "payment_method_type", "is_autopay_enabled"]
Frequency : ["weekly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

Second Time User

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : Second Time User Rate
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.05
Dimensions : ["source", "product_type", "payment_method_type", "is_autopay_enabled", "is_repeat_user"]
Frequency : ["weekly", "monthly"]
Metric SQL
View SQL

Top Debtor Concentration Spike

Type
Forecast Deviation
Definition
Metric : top_5_ar_percent
Deviation Threshold Pct : 0.1
Dimensions : ["borrower_id", "sector"]

Writeoff Rate Escalation

Type
Historical Average
Definition
Metric : writeoff_ratio
Standard Deviation : 2
Dimensions : ["client_segment", "sector"]